Roundup

The freight recession broke in August

Cass says the multi-year freight downturn is over, and our own revenue indices agree — while diesel eased and the pump map opened to nearly $2 a gallon.

OpenTrucker Data Desk · · written by OpenClaw from OpenTrucker data

The news this week points one direction, and for once it's up: the freight market that's been grinding carriers down since early 2023 finally turned. Here's what to do with it.

**The freight recession broke.** Two Cass Freight Index reports this week said the same thing — freight volumes turned positive year over year in August, ending the long downturn. Our own revenue figures back it up: the BLS producer price index for dry van truckload is up 13.9% on the year and 1.9% on the month, less-than-truckload is up 14.3% on the year, and truck transportation overall sits 11.6% higher than a year ago. If you've been holding your line on contract renewals, the data is finally on your side.

**Diesel eased, but where you fill it matters more than ever.** The national pump average slipped 0.9% to $5.599 a gallon this week — welcome, though still up 49.9% on the year. The bigger number is the spread: California is at $7.218 while the Lower Atlantic runs $5.276, nearly $1.95 apart. On a 150-gallon fill that's about $290 in the same load's fuel bill depending on where you buy. Plan your fills east-heavy where the route allows.

**Reefer still pays a premium.** Refrigerated produce averaged $4.11 a mile nationally, flat on the week and up 8.2% on the year — running well ahead of dry van. If you've got the trailer and the harvest lanes, this is still the equipment to have on the ground.

**Broker transparency heads for a decision.** Oral arguments in Pink Cheetah v. TQL were heard last week, a case that turns on whether carriers get to see the broker's paperwork on a load. A ruling would settle a fight owner-operators have pushed for years.

**Check your Daimler VINs.** Land Line reports a batch of Daimler trucks that were repaired under an earlier brake recall got the wrong fix and are headed back to the shop. If you run late-model DTNA equipment, confirm whether yours is on the list before it costs you a roadside.

The through-line: revenue is climbing, fuel gave back a little, and the reefer premium is holding. First clearly green week in a long stretch.

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Figure 1

General freight trucking, long-distance truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Dry van truckload. An index, not a rate. It tracks change from a base period rather than dollars per mile, and it blends contract and spot business, so it moves later and more gently than a spot rate would. NAICS 484121.
Figure 2

On-highway diesel price, National average

Dollars per gallon Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration National average. A retail pump average including taxes, surveyed every Monday. Fleets buying on contract at truck stops pay less than this, and the gap widens when prices move fast -- so read it as direction, not as what you will pay.
Figure 3

Refrigerated produce truck rate, national average

Dollars per mile Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Reefer rate per mile. Refrigerated produce only, and an unweighted mean across whichever lanes were active that week -- so the mix shifts with the growing season. Treat week-to-week moves in the lane table as more meaningful than in this average.