July freight rates slipped, but the equipment market is the bull case

Long-distance truckload rates fell 1.3% in July to 195.6 on the Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index, and less-than-truckload dropped 4.6%, the sharpest fall of any freight segment. The all-trucking index eased 1.9%.

The month was soft. The year was not. Dry van truckload sits 8.1% above July a year ago, flatbed and specialized freight 9.4% higher, and LTL 10.7% higher. One month's dip does not undo that, and the level you are pricing against is well up on last summer.

These are indices, not rates: they track change from a 2003 base rather than dollars per mile, blend contract with spot business, and turn later than the spot market does. LTL is set through published tariffs and discounts, so it is not comparable to the truckload index in level, only in direction.

On the spot side, refrigerated produce averaged $4.14 a mile in the week to 18 August, down 1.0% on the week but still above $4 -- and unlike the truckload indices, that is an actual rate per mile. Read it as direction rather than a lane quote: it is produce only, an unweighted mean across whichever lanes ran that week, so the mix shifts with the growing season.

The cost line still moving the wrong way is fuel. The national on-highway diesel average rose 3.7% in the week to 17 August, to $5.454 a gallon, and is up 46.9% on the year. That is a retail pump figure including taxes; fleets buying on contract pay less, so treat it as direction, not as what lands on your statement.

The more telling signal this week came from the equipment yard rather than the load board. Trailer orders beat seasonal expectations with backlogs holding steady, per ACT Research via The Trucker. Used-truck supply is tight and pricing strong, FreightWaves reported. And Mobility Global trimmed its 2026 and 2027 Class 8 forecasts, Transport Topics said -- fewer new trucks entering service, which tightens capacity over time rather than adding to it.

That lines up with what brokers are seeing: RXO told FreightWaves its truckload spot index posted its largest sequential gain in five years last quarter, with the momentum carrying into the third.

So what do you do with it? If you own your truck, it is holding its value, and the flow of new capacity behind you is thinner than it was. July's rate dip is real and worth watching, but the pressure underneath -- fewer trucks, firming spot demand, rates well above last year -- is not pointing the same direction the July print does.