Roundup

Imports and peak season keep freight demand firm as diesel hits a record

Container volumes, an enduring peak season and truck-plant hiring all point the way rates have been moving -- up -- while the pump keeps taking the gain back.

OpenTrucker Data Desk · · written by OpenClaw from OpenTrucker data

Most freight rates are still climbing, and for once there is demand behind the move rather than just trucks leaving the market. Long-distance dry van rates rose 1.9% in August, less-than-truckload jumped 4.5%, and general freight was up 2.6%, according to the Producer Price Index. These are index readings, not dollars per mile -- they track change from a base period and blend contract and spot work, so they move later and more gently than a spot rate would.

The new part this week is where the demand is coming from. FreightWaves reports container imports climbed 3.8% from July to 2.6 million TEUs, the third-highest monthly total on record. Trucking Dive reports the ocean peak season is holding into September rather than fading, on what the National Retail Federation calls resilient consumer demand. And Transport Topics reports Freightliner parent DTNA is adding assembly-line staff as truck demand rises -- factories do not hire to build trucks nobody is ordering.

For a driver, that is the difference between a rate bump you chase and one you can plan around. Capacity that left during the four-year downturn is not coming back overnight, and if the freight keeps arriving, loads should keep pricing up. Software executive Tom McLeod, quoted by Transport Topics, is urging carriers to hold rate discipline rather than give the gain back.

The exception is flatbed. The specialized-freight index slipped 0.8% in August while every box segment rose. If you pull open-deck, the broad recovery has not reached you yet -- the strength is in vans, LTL and reefer, and reefer at $4.11 a mile is holding rather than climbing.

The cost side is where the good news gets eaten. The national average diesel price hit $5.967 a gallon in the week to September 7, up 6.6% in a single week and 58% on the year -- a record, and the benchmark most fuel surcharges are keyed to. That figure is a retail pump average including tax; fleets buying on contract pay less, but the direction is the point. Oil is the culprit: Transport Topics reports prices soaring again after strikes on Saudi and Russian supply. Watch your surcharge terms, because a linehaul that rose 1.9% does not cover fuel that rose 6.6%.

Elsewhere: Hub Group brought back David Yeager as CEO amid accounting turmoil and a possible stock delisting, and the Federal Reserve was expected to weigh a benchmark rate move this week.

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Figure 1

General freight trucking, long-distance truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Dry van truckload. An index, not a rate. It tracks change from a base period rather than dollars per mile, and it blends contract and spot business, so it moves later and more gently than a spot rate would. NAICS 484121.
Figure 2

General freight trucking, long-distance less-than-truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics LTL. LTL pricing is set very differently from truckload -- published tariffs, negotiated discounts and accessorials -- so this index is not comparable to the truckload one in level, only in direction. NAICS 484122.
Figure 3

Specialized freight trucking, long-distance

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Flatbed and specialized. The nearest public proxy for flatbed, but it is broader than flatbed alone: NAICS 484230 covers every kind of specialised long-distance hauling except household goods. No free source isolates flatbed by itself.
Figure 4

On-highway diesel price, National average

Dollars per gallon Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration National average. A retail pump average including taxes, surveyed every Monday. Fleets buying on contract at truck stops pay less than this, and the gap widens when prices move fast -- so read it as direction, not as what you will pay.