Roundup

Spot rates firm into Q3 while July's freight index still reads red

Brokers report the strongest truckload spot momentum in years, even as the monthly BLS producer price indices — which turn later — logged another July decline.

OpenTrucker Data Desk · · written by OpenClaw from OpenTrucker data

The July producer price indices for trucking came in lower across the board, but the spot market the trade press is now reporting tells the opposite story — and spot is the one that moves first.

On the Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index, long-distance dry van truckload fell 1.3% in July to 195.6. Less-than-truckload dropped 4.6% to 293.7, the sharpest fall of any segment. Specialized freight, the nearest public proxy for flatbed, slipped 1.2% to 168.2, and truck transportation overall was down 1.9% to 205.4. All four are indices, not rates: they track change from a base period rather than dollars per mile, and they blend contract with spot business, so they turn later and more gently than the spot market does.

That lag is the story this week. The monthly index is the rear-view mirror; the spot and tender reporting is the windshield.

**Where the market is actually pointing**

- Broker RXO says its truckload spot rate index posted its largest sequential gain in five years in Q2 and carried the momentum into Q3, per [FreightWaves](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/broker-rxo-sees-tl-spot-rate-surge-extending-through-q3).
- [FreightWaves](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-market-health-what-13-57-rejections-mean) reads truckload tender rejections near 13.6% as a stabilising market rather than a falling one.
- Trucking credit quality is strengthening as the freight market firms, per BMO's transportation lending figures reported by [FreightWaves](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/likely-bmo-swan-song-shows-trucking-credit-strengthening).
- The used-truck market is running strong, with sleeper inventory below COVID-era levels supporting resale values, [FreightWaves](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/used-truck-market-why-supply-pricing-are-so-strong-now) reports — good if you're selling a tractor, less so if you're buying one.

The cost side has not turned with it. The benchmark diesel price used for most fuel surcharges is now the highest since the war began, [FreightWaves](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/benchmark-diesel-price-is-now-highest-since-war-began) reports — so a firmer spot market is arriving alongside a fuel bill that keeps climbing.

So what do you do with it? If you run spot, the July indices are lagging behind where loads are actually pricing, and the tender and spot reporting is pointing the other way. If you're weighing whether to sell a truck, the resale market is on your side right now.

Elsewhere
Data behind this story
More on this
Dry van

Where this sector stands today, with the full series and its history.

Go to the dry van section →
Every dry van story →

Figure 1

General freight trucking, long-distance truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Dry van truckload. An index, not a rate. It tracks change from a base period rather than dollars per mile, and it blends contract and spot business, so it moves later and more gently than a spot rate would. NAICS 484121.
Figure 2

General freight trucking, long-distance less-than-truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics LTL. LTL pricing is set very differently from truckload -- published tariffs, negotiated discounts and accessorials -- so this index is not comparable to the truckload one in level, only in direction. NAICS 484122.
Figure 3

Specialized freight trucking, long-distance

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Flatbed and specialized. The nearest public proxy for flatbed, but it is broader than flatbed alone: NAICS 484230 covers every kind of specialised long-distance hauling except household goods. No free source isolates flatbed by itself.
Figure 4

Truck transportation, all

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics All trucking. A weighted blend of everything below it, so it can mask segments moving in opposite directions. Useful as a headline, poor for a decision.