Tender rejections climb and capacity thins as carriers gain rate leverage

The freight market tightened this week, and for once the pressure is running in carriers' favour. FreightWaves reports US tender rejection rates are climbing in an unusual post-Labor Day surge -- a sign shippers are struggling to cover loads at the rates they want, which is the condition that hands drivers leverage on the next rate conversation.

The capacity behind that squeeze keeps thinning. Truckload carriers told FreightWaves the exodus of trucks is "growing, not slowing," driven by a regulatory crackdown on non-compliant drivers, and fleets are betting it lasts: The Trucker reports August trailer orders jumped sharply on the month, and Transportation Equipment Network is adding thousands of dry van trailers ahead of a peak season that is arriving early.

Our own data backs the direction. On the Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index, long-distance dry van truckload rose 1.9% in August to 207.6, up 13.9% on the year, while less-than-truckload climbed 4.5% to 306.8. Both are indices rather than dollars per mile -- they track change from a base period and blend contract with spot business, so they turn later and more gently than the spot market. The one segment not joining in is specialised and flatbed freight, which slipped 0.8% to 166.2. If you run a flatbed, the firming everyone is talking about has not reached your deck yet.

The cost side is still the story nobody wants. The national on-highway diesel average was $5.967 a gallon in the week to 7 September, up 6.6% in a single week and 58% on the year, according to the Energy Information Administration. That is a retail pump average including taxes, and contract buyers at truck stops pay less -- but the direction is punishing, and it is what drove FTR's Shippers Conditions Index deeper into negative territory in July, per The Trucker.

Cross-border lanes got messier. Transport Topics reports the US moved to bar Canadian goods from federal purchases as the USMCA fight escalates and Canada's counter-tariffs hit hundreds of US products; FreightWaves reports Mexico lifted an empty-truck restriction only after hundreds of tractors backed up at Eagle Pass. If your lanes touch Laredo, Eagle Pass or the northern border, build in the delay.

One for owner-operators: Transport Topics reports North Carolina and Ohio adopted laws restricting third-party litigation funding -- the outside money behind many oversized jury verdicts -- a change that over time could ease the liability climate small carriers work under.