Roundup

Truckload rates firm into peak as flatbed slips and the border churns

Dry van and LTL climbed again in August; capacity is thinning into an early peak while a Fed rate rise and record diesel are the costs to watch.

OpenTrucker Data Desk · · written by OpenClaw from OpenTrucker data

Dry van truckload rates rose 1.9% in August to 207.6 on the Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index, and less-than-truckload climbed 4.5% to 306.8. The firming that carriers have spent the summer calling a real turn is now showing in the government's numbers.

Flatbed and specialized freight is the exception, slipping 0.8% to 166.2 -- the one major segment that did not join the climb. All of these are indices, not dollars per mile: they track change from a base period and blend contract with spot business, so they move later and more gently than a spot rate would.

Underneath the indices, capacity is thinning into what several analysts now call an early peak. FreightWaves reports [tender rejections have surged since Labor Day](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-market-alert-why-us-tender-rejections-are-skyrocketing) and, separately, that the truckload [capacity exodus is "growing, not slowing"](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/carriers-tl-capacity-exodus-growing-not-slowing) as enforcement tightens on noncompliant drivers. Equipment makers are betting on it: ACT Research pegs preliminary August net trailer orders at 24,200 units, up 55% on July, [per The Trucker](https://www.thetrucker.com/trucking-news/business/act-preliminary-net-trailer-order-activity-continues-to-burn-brightly-in-august). Fewer trucks and more freight into peak is the case for holding out for the better-paying load rather than taking the first one offered.

The place to watch is the border. Mexican customs reversed a restriction on empty trucks after it [stranded roughly 700 tractors at Eagle Pass, Texas](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mexico-lifts-empty-truck-restriction-after-700-tractors-stranded-at-border), FreightWaves reports. On the northern side the U.S.-Canada trade fight escalated again, with Washington [barring Canadian goods from federal purchases](https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trump-bans-canadian-goods). Cross-border lanes are moving but unpredictable -- Estes is betting through it anyway, committing [$56 million to cross-border and offshore expansion](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/estes-bets-56m-on-cross-border-offshore-freight-expansion).

On costs, the Federal Reserve raised its main rate a quarter point, citing stubborn inflation -- a headwind for anyone financing equipment ([Trucking Dive](https://www.truckingdive.com/news/fed-hikes-main-interest-rate-by-quarter-point-citing-stubborn-inflation/830638/)). Diesel is the other one: the national retail average reached $5.967 a gallon in the week to 7 September, up 6.6% on the week. That is a pump average including taxes, so contract buyers pay less; read it as direction. Prices are high enough that regulators issued [hours-of-service relief for drivers hauling fuel](https://landline.media/record-fuel-prices-drive-hours-of-service-relief/) (Land Line).

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Figure 1

General freight trucking, long-distance truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Dry van truckload. An index, not a rate. It tracks change from a base period rather than dollars per mile, and it blends contract and spot business, so it moves later and more gently than a spot rate would. NAICS 484121.
Figure 2

General freight trucking, long-distance less-than-truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics LTL. LTL pricing is set very differently from truckload -- published tariffs, negotiated discounts and accessorials -- so this index is not comparable to the truckload one in level, only in direction. NAICS 484122.
Figure 3

Specialized freight trucking, long-distance

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Flatbed and specialized. The nearest public proxy for flatbed, but it is broader than flatbed alone: NAICS 484230 covers every kind of specialised long-distance hauling except household goods. No free source isolates flatbed by itself.
Figure 4

On-highway diesel price, National average

Dollars per gallon Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration National average. A retail pump average including taxes, surveyed every Monday. Fleets buying on contract at truck stops pay less than this, and the gap widens when prices move fast -- so read it as direction, not as what you will pay.