Analysis

LTL rates fell 4.6% in July, the sharpest of any freight segment

It was the steepest monthly drop in the freight producer price index, though LTL is still up 10.7% on the year -- a bigger annual gain than truckload.


The producer price index for long-distance less-than-truckload trucking fell 4.6% in July to 293.7, the sharpest one-month drop of any freight segment the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks. Dry van truckload fell 1.3% over the same month and flatbed and specialized fell 1.2%. The index is benchmarked to 100 in December 2003.

All of trucking softened in July. The all-trucking index fell 1.9% and general freight overall fell 2.3%, so no corner of the market gained. But LTL gave back far more than the rest -- its 4.6% fall was more than three times the dry van decline. For a small carrier or owner-operator hauling LTL freight, July undid a real chunk of a strong run.

The decline is real and it is the largest on the board -- no softening that. Even so, LTL rates are still up 10.7% on the same month a year ago, a bigger annual gain than dry van at 8.1% or flatbed at 9.4%. One heavy month does not erase where the segment sits year on year.

Truckload work held up better in July. Dry van and flatbed each slipped only about a percent, so the pain was concentrated in LTL rather than spread across the market. If your operation can flex between LTL and truckload freight, truckload was the steadier side to be on last month.

Two cautions on the number. These are index figures, not dollars per mile. And LTL pricing is set very differently from truckload -- published tariffs, negotiated discounts and accessorials -- so this index is not comparable to the truckload one in level, only in direction. The July reading is also preliminary and may be revised.


Data behind this story
Figure 1

General freight trucking, long-distance less-than-truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics LTL. LTL pricing is set very differently from truckload -- published tariffs, negotiated discounts and accessorials -- so this index is not comparable to the truckload one in level, only in direction. NAICS 484122.
Figure 2

Truck transportation, all

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics All trucking. A weighted blend of everything below it, so it can mask segments moving in opposite directions. Useful as a headline, poor for a decision.
Figure 3

General freight trucking, long-distance truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Dry van truckload. An index, not a rate. It tracks change from a base period rather than dollars per mile, and it blends contract and spot business, so it moves later and more gently than a spot rate would. NAICS 484121.
Figure 4

Specialized freight trucking, long-distance

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Flatbed and specialized. The nearest public proxy for flatbed, but it is broader than flatbed alone: NAICS 484230 covers every kind of specialised long-distance hauling except household goods. No free source isolates flatbed by itself.