Analysis

LTL rates fell 4.6% in July, the steepest drop of any freight segment

Less-than-truckload led a broad July softening, though it is still 10.7% higher than a year ago.


Long-distance less-than-truckload rates fell 4.6% in July to 293.7 on the Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index, the steepest one-month drop of any trucking segment the index tracks.

The rest of the market softened too, but by less. Dry van truckload fell 1.3% to 195.6, and long-distance specialised freight — the nearest public proxy for flatbed — fell 1.2% to 168.2. The all-trucking index fell 1.9%. LTL dropped roughly three to four times as fast as the truckload segments.

That gap is the story. LTL and truckload usually drift in the same direction; in July, LTL pulled sharply away from the pack. For a small carrier, a move this size in a single month is the kind of thing that turns up in what shippers are willing to pay a quarter later.

The fall does not erase the year. LTL is still 10.7% higher than it was a year ago, so July reads as one hard month off a high base, not a collapse.

A word on what the number is. LTL pricing is set very differently from truckload — published tariffs, negotiated discounts and accessorials — so this index is not comparable to the truckload one in level, only in direction (NAICS 484122). It is also an index rather than a rate: it tracks change from a base period, not dollars per hundredweight, and it blends contract with spot business, so it turns later and more gently than a spot quote would. July's reading is preliminary and may be revised.

What it means: the broad softening that has run through freight this summer landed hardest on LTL in July. Whether it holds is next month's question, not this one.


Data behind this story
Figure 1

General freight trucking, long-distance less-than-truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics LTL. LTL pricing is set very differently from truckload -- published tariffs, negotiated discounts and accessorials -- so this index is not comparable to the truckload one in level, only in direction. NAICS 484122.
Figure 2

General freight trucking, long-distance truckload

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Dry van truckload. An index, not a rate. It tracks change from a base period rather than dollars per mile, and it blends contract and spot business, so it moves later and more gently than a spot rate would. NAICS 484121.
Figure 3

Specialized freight trucking, long-distance

Index, Dec 2003 = 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Flatbed and specialized. The nearest public proxy for flatbed, but it is broader than flatbed alone: NAICS 484230 covers every kind of specialised long-distance hauling except household goods. No free source isolates flatbed by itself.